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Tuesday, April 3, 2018

Germany's population challenges

Jack -  Quite a bit has been written about the aging population of developed nations  - and the worries of governments about how they will provide the necessary financial support for seniors as there are fewer and fewer working-aged adults.  The poster child for aging nations is Japan, where, according to the World Bank, 27% of the population was over 65 years old. In contrast, in 2016 the same percentage for the World was 8%, while China was 10%, the USA 15%, Canada 17%, and the European Union at 19%.  Germany found itself on the higher side of its European neighbors - at 21% of the population going into retirement. Only Italy had a higher percentage (23%), while only Finland and Portugal also had 21%.


At about the same time the World Bank's report came out, Germany got some good news: in 2016, for the first time since Unification , the average age in Germany dropped. Germany had a higher rate of growth in births (plus 7.4%) and 1.5% fewer deaths than the year before. Now, here's where statistics can fool you - because of the many, many years of aging, there were STILL more deaths (911,000) than births (792,000). But when you combine that with the sudden influx of young persons/families from the Middle East and North Africa, it was definitely a step in the right direction demographically. (You can read more about this in a recent article from DW here. Warning: there is a really disturbing picture of a billboard by the populist/nativist/far-right AfD.)


We've mentioned this before, but Germany is a country slightly smaller than the state of Montana with twice the population of America's most populous state, California.  In a way, absorbing over 1 million new immigrants into Germany's 81 million residents is a modest increase. However, when you add that young, highly fertile population to such an aging nation with a fertility rate of only 1.5 children per woman, the numbers and especially the optics change really fast! Such a rapid shift can really challenge your educational, health, security, housing, and social systems.


Here is just one of the challenges facing this nation. The boy at the center of this picture is an enthusiastic, energetic six-grader originally from Syria.  He's doing well in the school just around the corner from Friedenhaus and he loves math, excels at geography and reading and playing all sports. We talked at the pot-luck and he proudly told me that at his elementary school there are children who speak 42 other mother-languages than German.  Now, for our readers from Rockingham County in Virginia, you likely know that those numbers are similar to your entire school district - but this is ONE school!

When he said that, the German grandfather sitting next to me, turned to me and said that one of his grandchildren is one of only two native Germans in his second-grade classroom. Now, picture yourself as that lonely teacher with all those children who don't fully understand you - some of whom may not understand you at all.  And, sure the system is trying hard to adjust, but part of that adjustment is removing different groups of those children throughout the day to give them extra language training.

When Greg and Jennifer looked at moving to Ludwigshafen from Mannheim last year, one of their dilemmas was that their 4-year-old was facing a waiting list of nearly 200 to get into the preschool. The preschool is free - but only if you can get a space in a class.  Little Alexander got it, but it continues to be a challenge across this little city of LU.  One of the reasons I have the children I care for each morning is because they haven't been able to get into a pre-school.


These demographics are compounded by the fact that over the past 20 years, the immigration has not been even across Germany.  First there were the many German families from Russia - when many Russian Mennonites (and German Baptists and Jews) came as a part of Willi Brandt's Ostpolitik. With the advent of the EU and Europe opening for cross-border movement of workers, persons from Spain, Poland, France, the UK, Italy, Greece, Croatia, etc. came to German as it had the strongest economy with the most good jobs. As with most historic migrations, families and communities from back home joined the new immigrants. (By the way, this is exactly like western Pennsylvania in the teens and twenties of the last century.)

In 2016 every fifth person in Rheinland Pfalz (our state in Germany) was an immigrant! In an industrial town like Ludwigshafen, there are times when it feels even more than that. 

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